In this video, Brian Edlow, MD, discusses what current research can—and cannot—tell us about predicting recovery after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI).
Dr. Edlow explains how long‑term studies, many conducted through the Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems, have reshaped our understanding of recovery. These studies show that recovery does not necessarily plateau at one year and can continue for many individuals over several years, including meaningful improvements in communication, independence, and return to school or work. While advances in research are improving our ability to understand recovery trajectories, Dr. Edlow emphasizes that accurate early prediction remains limited, underscoring the need for continued research and careful, humble communication with families facing uncertainty.
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What does research tell us about predicting outcome after severe TBI?
With Brian Edlow, MD
Lower Third
Brian Edlow, MD
Neurocritical Care,
Massachusetts General Spaulding-Harvard TBI Model System
We have a long way to go when it comes to providing families with reliable predictions of their loved one's chances of recovery. But we are getting better. And it's important to highlight recent advances in our field, many of which have been made possible by the TBI Model Systems collaboration, whereby tracking patients for years allows us to look backward and figure out what were the clinical factors in the ICU that predicted who would have the best recoveries later on.
Studies like this have fundamentally changed our understanding of the recovery process. I was taught in medical school that recovery plateaus at about a year. We now have definitive evidence from multiple studies, many of which came from the TBI Model Systems project, that recovery can continue to year two, year five, even year 10 in some patients. So we are better at understanding the trajectory of recovery, the possibilities for meaningful neurologic recovery in which patients are interacting with their loved ones, returning to school or to work. But we still have a long way to go and a lot more research needs to be done to ensure that we're providing families with the most reliable information possible.
Produced by the Model Systems Knowledge Translation Center (MSKTC), this story is part of the Recovering from Disorders of Consciousness Hot Topic Module. The content of this video is based on research and/or professional consensus. This content has been reviewed and approved by experts from the Traumatic Brain Injury Model System (TBIMS) centers, funded by the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living, and Rehabilitation Research, as well as experts from the Polytrauma Rehabilitation Centers (PRCs), with funding from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. The content of the video has also been reviewed by individuals with TBI and/or their family members.
Disclaimer: This information is not meant to replace the advice of a medical professional. You should consult your health care provider about specific medical concerns or treatment. The contents of this video were developed under a grant from the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living, and Rehabilitation Research (NIDILRR grant number 90DPKT0009). NIDILRR is a Center within the Administration for Community Living (ACL), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The contents of this video do not necessarily represent the policy of NIDILRR, ACL, or HHS, and you should not assume endorsement by the federal government.
Copyright © 2026 Model Systems Knowledge Translation Center (MSKTC). May be reproduced and distributed freely with appropriate attribution. Prior permission must be obtained for inclusion in fee-based materials.
About the author: Model Systems Knowledge Translation Center (MSKTC)
The Model Systems Knowledge Translation Center (MSKTC) is a national center operated by the American Institutes for Research® (AIR®) The MSKTC collaborates with Model System researchers to translate health information into easy to understand language and formats for people living with spinal cord injury (SCI), traumatic brain injury (TBI), and burn injury and those who support them.
